City Council D2 Primary Data Shows Tammy Morales Has Easier Path to Win, Challenger Tanya Woo Faces Uphill Climb

by Andrew Hong

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In the Seattle City Council District 2 August primary election in South Seattle, progressive incumbent Councilmember Tammy Morales won with over 50% of the vote, slightly exceeding her 2019 primary performance. While Morales’ 2023 vote share was similar to her 2019 numbers (52% versus 50%), her winning coalition of neighborhoods and communities changed across the South End’s District 2. Those changes were associated with race, with Morales’ 2023 base comprising more Black voters in Rainier Beach and New Holly, and less support in the Chinatown-International District (CID) and Beacon Hill than in 2019. 

In this article, I will analyze the results of the 2023 primary election in the South End, how the results shifted from the last City Council race in 2019, what it means for the November general election, and how different factors explain the data trends we see.

Primary Results: Morales Wins Majority, Similar Patterns Emerge Despite Low Turnout

The 2023 primary in Seattle City Council District 2 was dominated by two candidates, who combined received 95% of the vote. Councilmember Tammy Morales, who represents the progressive wing of Seattle politics, received 52.3% of the votes and was endorsed by The Stranger. Her opponent who advanced to the November general election was The Seattle Times endorsee Tanya Woo, who represents the more centrist faction in Seattle politics and earned 42.6% of the votes. Margaret Elisabeth, a Green Party member, took third, with 4.7%.

Compared with the 2019 primary, turnout decreased across the county, including in Seattle’s District 2. In 2023, turnout was at 30.7%, down from 37.8% in 2019. This turnout drop was relatively uniform throughout the district, with one notable exception: There was no substantial turnout decrease in North Beacon Hill and the CID, where Woo has heavily organized in and out of her campaign. While change in turnout was constant throughout the district, turnout itself was racially disparate: Majority-BIPOC neighborhoods had smaller turnout than white neighborhoods. This is an ongoing trend we see often in the South End and across the state.

Looking at the election results precinct by precinct, familiar patterns in Seattle city politics emerge. Progressive Morales performed well in young and renter-heavy Columbia City and throughout the diverse Rainier Valley and New Holly. Moderate Woo performed best in wealthy neighborhoods along the waterfront, like Seward Park and Mount Baker, but also the CID. These trends mirror what we saw in the recent February 2023 I-135 social housing ballot initiative, where diverse, renter-heavy neighborhoods heavily supported social housing while wealthy neighborhoods opposed. These patterns are also similar to the 2021 mayoral election with moderate Mayor Bruce Harrell excelling along homes with views of Lake Washington, but faltering in and around Columbia City.

Change From 2019: Morales Gains Black Support, Loses Chinese American Votes

Morales’ winning 2023 coalition is similar to her 2019 coalition, where she won a similar majority of the primary votes, but it has a few notable differences. Morales lost support in the double digits in the CID, where Woo and her family have a long history of community advocacy. Morales lost support, though to a smaller degree, in majority-Asian precincts in South Beacon Hill, after winning both Beacon Hill and the CID handily in 2019. 

However, that shedding of support is limited to predominantly Chinese American neighborhoods. Morales actually increased her vote share in Little Saigon and neighborhoods around Othello where Vietnamese Americans are the predominant Asian ethnicity. Indeed, in a regression model, there is very little correlation between how many Asians live in a precinct overall, and how much support Morales lost since 2019.

Morales also made double-digit gains among voters in predominately Black communities. In East African-dominated New Holly and Rainier Vista and in African American areas in Rainier Beach, Morales improved her 2019 margins by over 15%, making those neighborhoods her greatest improvements since 2019.

So, despite criticism from politicians that Morales has ignored public safety in Rainier Beach and Little Saigon, after her first term in City Hall, Morales won over a greater share of voters who actually live in Rainier Beach, New Holly, and Little Saigon.

Beyond the many community events Morales has organized and attended in these neighborhoods during her first term, another potential reason why Morales may have grown her popularity here is who she’s running against. Her top 2019 opponent was Black, while her 2023 opponent, Woo, is Chinese American. Subsequently, Morales gained the most support since 2019 in heavily Black precincts and lost the most votes in heavily Chinese precincts. Race matters in politics, especially in District 2, where People of Color comprise a majority.

New Redistricting: Little Impact

Another interesting wrinkle about this year’s primary election was it was the first time voters voted in the newly redistricted City Council districts. Last year’s City Council redistricting process brought changes to South Seattle’s District 2, with Georgetown and SoDo being removed and Yesler Terrace and the northern areas of Mount Baker being added to District 2. These redistricting changes did not have a large effect on the election results, however, as Morales won Yesler Terrace and northern Mount Baker by similar margins as her 2019 performance in Georgetown and SoDo. In other words, while Morales lost friendly votes in Georgetown, she made it up by winning in newly added Yesler Terrace and northern Mount Baker.

What All This Means for November: Morales Advantage

Morales has good odds going into the general election on Nov. 7. Morales was one of just two candidates this year across the city that broke 50% in the primary; she received the highest vote share of any candidate. Improving from her 2019 performance of just over 50%, she goes into the general election with math and history behind her. There are zero examples in recent history of candidates for Seattle City office who won a majority in the primary, but lost in the November general election. Perhaps the closest case of this happening involved Morales herself, who came within 2% of unseating then-City Councilmember Bruce Harrell in the 2015 District 2 race after he won over 60% in the primary.

Morales also benefits from looking at where she can gain new votes in November.

Firstly, third-place finisher Elisabeth endorsed Morales ahead of the general, suggesting a majority of Elisabeth’s 5% in the primary will add into Morales’ 52% in November. The figure below shows how adding Elisabeth’s voters to Morales would change the precinct map, with Morales gaining the most around Yesler Terrace and New Holly, where Elisabeth performed best. Since there were far fewer votes for primary candidates outside of the top two advancing to the general in 2023 compared with 2019, there is less ambiguity about how the general election results will look. Instead of over 25% of the primary vote being up for grabs in 2019, less than 5% is up for taking in 2023.

Secondly, the general election typically brings out new voters who did not vote in the primary. Historic data shows these new voters tend to be younger and more diverse than the primary electorate, which tends to favor Morales.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Morales demonstrated she has maintained approval from her constituents in the South End’s District 2 with an improved vote share from her 2019 performance. She built her second winning primary election coalition by coalescing similar communities that support progressives, like young people, renters, and voters along Rainier Avenue, as well as by gaining support from Southeast Asian and Black communities in New Holly and Rainier Beach. 

This primary also highlighted how race still plays a powerful role in South End politics, with moderate Woo outperforming previous moderate candidates in heavily Chinese neighborhoods like the CID while faltering in Black neighborhoods where previous moderate (Black) candidates ran strong. 

Looking ahead toward November, history and data trends point to Morales as the favorite. However, history and numbers don’t vote, people do. Whether you’re in District 2 or not, make sure you turn in your ballot by 8 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 7, to make your voice heard.

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📸 Featured Image: Collage of heat maps of data from the 2023 primary elections. Maps created by Andrew Hong.

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