Will Surviving Gunfire Be Donald Trump’s Next Appeal To Black Voters?

Shots were fired at a Trump campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president narrowly escaped. He emerged bloody, but fortunately not critically injured. “President Trump thanks law enforcement and first responders for their quick action during this heinous act,” spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement. “He is fine and is being checked out at a local medical facility.” Tragically, one attendee is dead and at this time another is in serious condition. The suspected shooter also is dead.

Will Trump seize the apparent assassination attempt against him as an opportunity to meaningfully address the epidemic of gun violence in America? Will he deem unacceptable the dangers to which citizens are exposed as they go to schools, places of religious worship, concerts, movie theaters, supermarkets, shopping malls, sporting events, and now, presidential campaign rallies? It’s possible, but unlikely.

“And the Blacks, they love me because they know the terrifying sound of gunshots,” isn’t a claim that Trump has actually made. Hopefully he doesn’t. But it isn’t at all unthinkable. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee has repeatedly contended that the August 2023 release of his criminal mugshot deeply resonated with Black voters because they know firsthand the unfairness of our nation’s criminal justice system. He has since relied on that narrative to persuade more Black Americans to cast votes for him this November. More Black men now than four years ago say they’re voting for Trump this time, but not many of them say they’re planning to do so because of any notion of shared kinship with judicial injustice.

Immediately after shots were fired, Trump fell and then secret service agents rushed to his side. He was down just over one minute. As the agents lifted him and he stood again, Trump looked into the crowd and raised his fist.

After winning gold and bronze medals for their spectacular performances in the men’s 200-meter race at the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City, American track athletes Tommie Smith and John Carlos raised gloved fists as they stood on the podium. The two Black men were protesting racial injustice in their home country as “The Star-Spangled Banner” began to play. The photograph of what has since become known as the “Black Power Salute” remains one of the most iconic images in global sports history. Trump could claim that his raised fist was an homage to the courage of Smith and Carlos who’d emerged victoriously after overcoming considerable odds.

In June 2020, many Black Americans and supporters from other racial groups marched in cities all across the nation with their fists raised. They were protesting Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin’s murder of George Floyd, an unarmed Black man. Many outraged citizens peacefully marched outside the White House. Then-President Trump weaponized the National Guard and law enforcement against them. But now, just over four years later, there’s a chance that his raised fist at the Pennsylvania rally could become erroneously connected to the Black people who were marching with fists raised in rallies in summer 2020 and at other moments in American history. Let’s hope not. That would be revisionist history.

Butler is less than an hour north of Pittsburgh. It isn’t an urban center. But many big cities in which large numbers of Black Americans reside have long been plagued with inexcusably high levels of gun violence. Everytown Research and Policy’s analysis of 2018-2022 FBI data shows that Black people in Pittsburgh are 14 times more likely to die by gun homicide than are whites in the place affectionately known as “the Steel City.” Milwaukee, where this year’s Republican National Convention is being held, has the sixth-highest homicide by firearm rate in the nation. There, Blacks are 6.7 times more likely to be shot and killed than are white residents.

Using his powerful platform to advocate fixing this through public policy and significant financial investments into urban Black communities is the opportunity that awaits Trump once he recovers from the tragedy that occurred at his rally. Another racially problematic kinship narrative is unlikely to make Black voters see Trump as one of them. And it most certainly won’t fix the gun violence crisis in rural, suburban, or urban places in which too many Americans are unnecessarily placed at risk of being shot.

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