Political power could shift in Richmond, and so could strategies for future elections.
VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. — With Virginia’s November elections gaining national attention, many consider what happens in the Commonwealth to be a preview of the political landscape and a pre-cursor to the 2024 presidential elections.
13News Now talked with Dr. A.J. Nolte, Director of Regent University’s Master’s in Government program to pose the question: what’s at stake?
Alex Littlehales: Who has the most to lose this election cycle? Who has the most to gain?
Nolte: “I think Republicans and Democrats will lose and gain in different ways. I think locally, Virginia Republicans may have more to lose than Virginia democrats. However nationally, I think if Democrats lose both chambers, the way they’re trying to nationalize these races will be a very bad sign. That doesn’t necessarily mean they should or shouldn’t. I’ve referred to the Democrats campaign strategy as the ‘Noun Verb abortion’ strategy, and Democrats basically nationally have two arrows in their quiver they hope will be effective. Abortion, and that Donald trump is ‘bad and scary.’ If Democrats don’t win at the state House and Senate level in Virginia, they need to re-evaluate the abortion strategy. Not because it doesn’t move the voters, but because it may mean other issues are more important to voters.
“The danger for Republicans locally is Governor Youngkin has been very active, very careful to not nationalize this race. Running on the Youngkin brand. They did well to get the preferred recruits go through. But if they can’t take the chambers in this election cycle, what that indicates is that Virginia is bluer than maybe they had hoped. The losses and risks are asymmetrical, more local for Republicans and more national for Democrats.”
AL: We’ve seen that dynamic in political ads, too.
“Think of it like this: Republicans hope it’s 2021 again, Democrats hope its 2022 again. In 2021, motivated by a lot of local issues, people came out and voted for Youngkin, Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares. In 2022, despite a really bad potential environment for democrats, they were able to portray Republicans as far right and extreme, which tied them to Trump and January 6 [insurrection]. In select districts they also ran on abortion. That was successful, so democrats are hoping it’s still 2022.
AL: It’s also interesting to look at redistricting, where historically some districts have voted Democratic for statewide and congressional races, but then voted in Youngkin in 2021.
Nolte: “There are some Clinton and* Youngkin voters, and it’s turnout driven. Will democrats be able to turnout their coalition at 2022 levels in 2023?
“Republicans are really banking on the fact that people are going to see Gov. Youngkin as the head of the party in Virginia because his approval is pretty high, but democrats are banking on portraying them as the more extreme party.
AL: Why are so many people calling this a bellwether for 2024? Is it because this is the biggest game in town, so to speak, this cycle? Or is it because Virginia is still perceived as being a purple-swing state?
“What we know is that a Republican [Presidential] nominee can lose Virginia by 10 or 15 points and win the election. We know this because Donald Trump did this in 2016. Virginia is not a bellwether in the sense that how goes Virginia so goes the nation. But there are parts of Virginia that are emblematic of different parts of the country. What will rural turnout be for republicans in 2024? Will that rural coalition turn out again? They did turn out in 2023, and democrats are asking ‘What are suburban voters thinking.’”
“Bellwethers for both sides for testing out suburban strategies.”
AL: What do you make of some the high level endorsements for democrats?
“Republicans are seeing their local brand with Youngkin as very strong. Democrats are nationalizing this, tying them to abortion, January 6, trying to turn out their voters in blue areas, which may show they’re a little concerned about the turn out mechanics of a low turnout election. For Wes Moore, it’s not a particularly well kept secret he has national ambitions. so him stumping in a neighboring state in an off-year election, that makes perfect sense.
“As for the white house, the robocalls from Barack Obama, that tells me they may be concerned about African American and white suburban voters, even voters who have tended to vote blue in the past.”
“Remember, Presidential elections always have higher minority turnout than off year elections. That’s a staple of election coverage.
AL: So, are we going to see a Youngkin Presidential bid this year?
“If one of them [Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis] comes out with a clear win in that Wednesday debate, it would solidify the non-Trump lane. So we’re really looking at a closed window for Youngkin but he might be okay with that. Because if you’re running against Trump there are risks with that.”
“What you don’t want is Trump endorsing someone else. Even if Youngkin doesn’t want his endorsement, he doesn’t want it going to someone else either. someone else. But at a minimum, if Trump is saying nasty things in the race he’s saying them about everyone else. If it’s a slug fest and Nikki Haley and DeSantis don’t look particularly good, if things go really well for Youngkin, does he consider it?
For more information about the key issues, candidates and how to make sure you’re ready to vote, check out 13News Now’s election guide.