THE Republican red colour has inundated the entire USA like the Antediluvian flooding. If you look at the map, it appears that painters put red paint all over except for some streaks of blue representing Democrats at the NE coastal belt, the thin slivers of the west coast, and some blue drops scattered here and there on the urban areas. However, the population shares between the two parties are almost the same.
The US election in November 2024 activated a strange shift in American politics. What went wrong for the Democrats?
The situation warrants the Democrats’ soul searching. A story by Martha McHardy, published by Newsweek on November 9, 2024, gives a pertinent clue to what happened in the voting booths. Ms McHardy wrote, ‘Exit poll data shows that the shift toward Trump in New Jersey was largely driven by counties with large Hispanic populations. For example, in Hudson County, a deeply Democratic stronghold with a 41 per cent Hispanic population, Trump won 35 per cent of the vote, up from 26 per cent in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump carried Passaic County, which also has a large Hispanic population.’
Analysis of the exit poll showed that Trump’s victories in swing states were, to some extent, due to unanticipated support from Hispanic voters, despite Trump’s declaration of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants who are mainly Hispanic. The question arises: Are Hispanic voters, who are US citizens, okay with the mass deportation of their same ethnic fellows? Future research will reveal the answer, but for now, it is the pocketbook issue. Inflated cost of food and other essentials, lack of affordable housing, higher rents, and persistent unemployment in the unskilled sectors have made the lives of uneducated working Americans pretty much difficult. The same miseries happened to the uneducated Black males who have been considered a loyal voting bloc of the Democrats, and still, they are. However, some minor flipping caused a major problem for the Democrats in the swing states.
Who is to blame for all this suffering? Almost always the incumbent government! The Biden-Harris administration inherited an ailing economy caused by the pandemic Covid. This deadly virus took an enormous number of lives, devasted the economy, disrupted supply chains, decimated jobs, and, at one point, brought economic activities to a near standstill. To get the economy back on its feet, the government poured $4.8 trillion into circulation, which eventually caused inflation. The pandemic has been tamed. During the remaining tenure of Biden Harris, the Federal Reserve Bank struggled hard to lower inflation by raising interest rates and by quantitative tightening. It has been problematic to navigate through the stormy sea of economic disaster. Finally, inflation is reduced to less than 3 per cent. However, unreasonable damage has been done to the reputation of Biden-Harris, which is reflected in poll after poll when the question was about the economy.
Trump and his information war team made the best use of this sad situation. His incendiary rhetoric against the government institutions, dubbed the deep state, got the attention and, eventually, the support of the uneducated and unskilled working class, no matter what ethnicity they have. The financial and economic suffering has united the have-nots against the incumbency and the associated institutions — the so-called deep state. The have-nots want pay cheques, food on the table, and affordable housing, no matter who comes to power. That person may be a convicted criminal, but if he can provide sustenance, he is the macho male they want. Trump stole the stage with his promises and performance in the first forty-five months of his first-term presidency of low inflation and higher pay that began in October 2010 during Obama’s presidency.
So there is a strange shift in US politics.
Things appear reversed if I look ‘Through the Looking Glass,’ like Alice of Lewis Carroll. The working class was the backbone of the Democrats’ politics. The populist outcry of Donald Trump’s new Republican Party has eroded that Democratic support. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party used to chorus against the CIA, FBI, and the military-industrial complex. Now, Donald Trump’s new coalition wants to decimate the deep state, including those and other institutions.
The Justice Department and other law enforcement agencies were very dear to the Republican Party. No more! According to Trump’s vocabulary, the Justice Department is the worst antagonist in the deep state. Many operatives of the Justice Department are thought to be on his enemy list. No one knows what will happen to this so-called swamp in Trump’s language. Now, let us see the other side. During the Black Lives Matter movement, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party wanted to reduce the law enforcement forces. Their presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, praised and spoke in favour of them. Notice the reversal.
Do we see this kind of reversal in US history? Yes, we do! Abraham Lincoln founded the Republican Party, which fought against slavery in the Civil War. The Democrats, who used to own the southern plantations that needed African American slaves to make profits, fought for slavery. During the civil rights movement era for African Americans and other minorities, the transition for another reversal began. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 outlawed discrimination based on ethnicity, religion, and sex and especially granted rights to African Americans who were denied these rights for a long time.
President Lyndon B Johnson is said to have commented the day he signed the Civil Rights Act, ‘We’ve lost the South for a generation.’ His prediction proved to be correct. After this was signed, the US’s southern states began transforming from Democrat to Republican. That process is now complete. Rarely do we see any state-wide elected Democrat in the southern states. However, this time, the political shift caused by Donald Trump is unique. Donald Trump’s ideological surrogates, led by the Heritage Foundation’s Kevin Roberts in its Project 2025 that institutionalises Trumpism, want to reduce or eliminate food stamps and other entitlements and health care that are important for the poor and low-income working class. Ironically, these groups flocked to his side during the 2024 election. Democrats support entitlements for helping the poor and needy, but some of them abandoned the Democrats. I am watching this curious political shift through the looking glass of Alice.
Dr Mostofa Sarwar is a professor emeritus at the University of New Orleans, former visiting professor and adjunct faculty member at the University of Pennsylvania and former dean and vice-chancellor of Delgado Community College.