Black voters helped put Joe Biden in the White House four years ago. They may not vote to give him a second term, even though they dislike former president Donald Trump far more, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.
The poll, of Black voters in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, found that Biden is still the first or second choice of the vast majority, while most would avoid Trump.
Like many Americans, Olivia and Macayla Jones aren’t happy with either one.
“I guess you can call us double-haters,” said Olivia Jones, 22, from Lansing, Michigan, a senior at Central Michigan University.
But the sisters’ votes will be among the most highly sought after by presidential hopefuls who may see their fortunes come down to just a few thousand votes in pivotal battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
“I’m not voting for Trump, but I’m not excited about voting for Biden,” she added. “None of my close friends are excited about either candidate. It’s a universal feeling.”
Macayla Jones, 23, a communications coordinator for a youth center in Bellville, Michigan, said she will likely end up voting for Biden as “the less of two evils, which still kind of disturbs me.”
More:Biden has a problem with Black voters. So does Trump.
In 2020, Biden carried 92% of Black voters nationwide with Trump winning just 8%, according to Pew Research Center validated voter studies.
Less than 150 days until Biden faces his predecessor again, however, various campaign yardsticks indicate African American support for Biden is far more anemic this time around.
In states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the race could be decided by the slimmest of margins, the president can hardly afford to lose any support from his most reliable base as he faces a rematch with Trump.
For his part, Trump said his campaign is making inroads with the Black community. But polls, including the USA TODAY/Suffolk survey released Sunday, show those might not be as big as he thinks.
Both candidates face challenges and opportunities
David Paleologos who directs Suffolk’s Political Research Center and led the new poll, said the good news for Biden is that he might be able to win back some of those voters who say they’re not big fans or prefer third-party candidates. In Michigan, for instance, he’s the first choice of 54% of voters in both states and the second choice of an additional 45%, the poll showed.
Trump is polling somewhat higher than the 2020 exit polls, with about 15% in Michigan saying they’ll support him and 11% in Pennsylvania, compared to single-digits in the last election.
The silver lining for Trump, Paleologos said, is that because Biden won 13 times Trump’s support from Black voters the last time, to maintain the same level of support, Biden would need to earn 13 new Black votes for every vote he loses to Trump.
“That’s why Trump feels a sense of improvement in the Black community,” Paleologos said. Still, whether those people who support Trump, who tend to be less educated, lower income, independent and inconsistent voters, will actually turn out in November remains to be seen.
“Why would they vote in 2024, if they didn’t in 2020?” Paleologos asked. “The least-connected, the least involved people matter the most in these swing states.”
The new phone survey was conducted with 500 African American registered voters in Pennsylvania and an equal number in Michigan between June 9 and 13. The poll in each state has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning results that are close might have happened by chance.
By focusing on African Americans in these swing states, the poll reveals new information about how likely voters feel about key issues facing the country and where the candidates have strengths, weaknesses and opportunities.
Many of their positions are similar to those of most other Americans’. More than half of those polled in both states say they think the country is headed in the wrong direction. They list “inflation/economy” as their top issue heading into the fall’s election.
These Black voters also stand apart on some cultural issues. They oppose book bans and strongly support the teaching of African American history in public schools.
A little over half of those polled said they are against transgender minors getting gender-affirming medical care, well above the national average from other surveys.
Support for abortion with few restrictions, at about 70% in both states, comes in above the 63% seen in a recent national poll.
Ronald Bennett, 67, of Pittsburgh, said Biden’s support for legalizing abortion at the national level is one of the reasons he will vote for the president’s reelection.
“A woman has control over her own body, not no man and not no president,” he said.
‘Less enthusiasm’ for Biden but disgust for Trump
Of the Black voters polled who voted for Biden in 2020 but said they weren’t supporting him now, more than a third said they haven’t been impressed with his performance in office. Fourteen percent said he’s now too old for the job, one percent more than those who said they’re concerned about his support for Israel during the war in Gaza; and 11% said Biden hasn’t kept his promises.
Interviews with voters anecdotally supported these findings, with several expressing fatigue with Biden and his party. Chiefly, they expressed a frustration with legislative failures on policies Black voters are invested in, such as police accountability and voting rights, according to various experts and national civil rights leaders.
Alicia Coulter, 46, of Los Angeles, said she gets that people have reason to be unhappy with the current president. But she said the Republican-led backlashes against diversity initiatives and classroom curriculum, in addition to Trump’s history of incendiary and racist remarks, should be enough to motivate them to vote.
“I’m frustrated that certain age groups, especially millennials and Gen Z, question if Trump would do better for them in terms of lowering taxes and improving the job market,” Coulter said.
“Let’s use some common sense here.”
According to a Washington Post-Ipso poll in April, Biden bests Trump among Black voter in terms of trust on handling issues they care about such as the economy, crime, abortion, the war in Gaza and racism by at least 3-to-1 margins.
Bennett, who worked as a certified nurse aid in a senior living facility until he had to go on disability after a 2012 stroke, said he likes Biden because “he’s a union man.”
Bennett remains concerned about inflation. The $16 he gets every month in food stamps is only enough to buy a loaf of bread and a dozen eggs.
“They act like they give you a lot when they give you food stamps but food stamps is not enough for the price of food now,” he said. “Once I pay all my bills and everything, I have nothing.”
Still, he doesn’t think it’s Biden’s fault ‒ or that the economy would be any better under Trump.
“Everybody blames the president but the president only has a certain amount of control over the economy. He can’t change the way things is,” Bennett said.
Trump supporters
James Jones, 42, of Detroit, said he voted for Trump in 2020 and plans to again in November.
A married father of two adult children with a self-professed “do-it-yourself” mentality, Jones said he simply believes Trump has more of America’s interests in mind than Biden and the Democrats.
“I think that Trump is focused on what America needs and not so much the rest of the world. We need more of that,” said Jones, a handyman. “He’s going to make sure that our money is being spent here instead of elsewhere. He believes in let’s look out for us. He’s for our country, plain and simple.”
Jones said he’s not worried about Trump’s recent convictions and doesn’t think that will stop him from returning to the White House.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, 64% of Michigan voters said the conviction will make them less likely to support Trump, while 9% said they are now more likely to support him. (In Pennsylvania, the comparable figures were 65% and 5% respectively.)
Just over half of Michigan voters surveyed would send Trump to jail for his transgressions while about 20% would impose a hefty fine. In Pennsylvania, 61% want him to serve time, while 17% said a fine would suffice.
Jones voted Democratic for years, but chose Trump in 2020, because he felt the Democrats were taking Black votes for granted. He said he even regrets voting twice for former President Barack Obama.
“If I had only known then what I know now,” Jones said. “I think the Democrats have tricked (Black voters) for far too long. We can do better.”
Turning to a third party
In both states, 15% to just over 16% of voters said their first choice candidate belongs to neither the Democratic nor Republican party.
Both independents Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were essentially tied in both states with 6% to 8% each, well within the poll’s margin of error. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received the support of just 1% of those polled and the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver barely registered with voters at all.
Beza Wossene, 37, of Philadelphia, said fellow academic Cornel West resonates with her. The Democratic Party is about the status quo, she said, while West represents the dramatic change the county really needs.
Her own financial struggles ‒ despite a master’s degree and job as a college administrator ‒ have reinforced for her the problems with America’s economic, social and racial situation and driven her to consider a third-party candidate, she said.
“I thought if I did everything that my parents didn’t do that I would be able to get myself out of the working class,” Wossene said. But “making ends meet, month to month with two young children has become really, really challenging with the cost of gas and the cost of food.”
In addition to economic issues, she said she’s upset that the Democrats didn’t do more to protect abortion rights, and she’s convinced she’ll have to leave the country, send her children to private school or homeschool them.
“They’re not really learning the truth; they’re not learning history,” she said of students in public schools.
Kevin Nathaniel Hylton, 64, of the New York City borough of Brooklyn, said he plans to vote for Kennedy, whom he describes as a fighter against “corporate corruption,” which he believes stands in the way of Black rights and civil liberties.
“I don’t think he does enough, but I feel he will do more in the White House than those other two,” Hylton said about Kennedy whom he’s met twice. He came away impressed.
Hylton, a musician and former registered Republican, said he doesn’t hate the main party candidates, though he didn’t vote for either Biden or Trump to become president four years ago. But he has a long memory.
He still hasn’t forgotten when Trump reportedly disparaged Haiti and other African nations in 2018.
And he still takes great offense to Biden’s May 2020 comment during an interview with national radio personality Charlamagne tha God “if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t Black.” Biden later apologized.
If Kennedy doesn’t make the ballot in New York, Hylton said he’ll stay home in November. “That’s a sign telling me not to vote again.”
Understanding the stakes
Still many voters, like Sanford Howie II, of Inglewood, California, remain unsure about who to support in November.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, 14% of voters in both Michigan and Pennsylvania said they are undecided.
Howie, a longtime registered Democrat, has been worried about Biden’s decision-making. And he doesn’t trust Trump.
“I honestly don’t know what I’m going to do this time,” Howie, an accountant for a large construction company, told USA TODAY. “I don’t necessarily believe in either of them right now.”
Olivia and Macalya Jones, the two sisters living in swing state Michigan, understand how their peers’ votes could tip the scales in 2024.
“And my fear of Trump has to overpower my hatred for Biden. Because we can’t go back to that,” Olivia Jones said.
Both worry whether either Biden or Trump will tackle the topics they care about, such as a cease-fire to end Israel’s war in Gaza, safeguarding reproductive rights, eliminating student loan debt and pushing for more gun reforms.
“I would prefer candidates who better represent our generation and what we want to see this country look like,” Macayla Jones said. “Someone who’s listening to us.”