A poll has indicated that former President Donald Trump’s share of the Black vote in this year’s election could be more than triple that of 2020’s.
The Fox News national survey, published on Wednesday, found that President Joe Biden was narrowly leading Trump by 50 percent to 48 percent. The survey, conducted between June 14 and 17, has a margin of error of 3 percent.
The poll also found that 27 percent of Black voters—a key demographic that helped Biden win in 2020—were planning to support Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.
This suggests the former president could triple the amount of votes from Black voters in November’s election, set to be a rematch of the 2020 race between Trump and Biden, because the Republican won just 8 percent of the Black vote four years ago, according to an analysis by the Pew Research Center.
However, the same Fox News survey—which on Wednesday said Biden had the support of 73 percent of Black voters—underestimated this demographic’s support for the Democrat before the 2020 election, giving him about 79 percent of the Black vote. The vast majority of Black voters—92 percent—backed Biden four years ago, according to the Pew analysis.
Former President Donald Trump joins community leaders for a roundtable discussion in Detroit, Michigan. A new poll suggests Trump could more than triple his 2020 Black vote in November.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Biden campaigns for comment via email.
“For a candidate who’s constantly accused of being racist, it’s ironic that Trump is on pace to capture a larger share of the Black vote than any Republican presidential nominee in recent memory,” Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek.
“Even if many of these voters end up flipping on Trump, the fact that Biden is having to spend time, energy, and money shoring up what’s traditionally been a solidly Democratic demographic has a cost. The trade-off is fewer resources that the campaign will be able to devote to courting other swing and moderate voters.”
Recent polls have suggested Biden is losing support among Black voters, particularly in battleground states. The Black vote had helped him win in swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020.
CNN reported on data this week that shows Biden’s lead among Black voters under the age of 50 has plummeted over the past four years, from 80 points in 2020 to 37 in 2024.
Other surveys have suggested Black voters are turning away from Trump after he became the first former U.S. president to be convicted of felony crimes. A jury last month found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor. He still maintains his innocence and has vowed to appeal, claiming the trial is part of a political witch hunt against him.
In recent weeks, both Trump and Biden’s campaigns have stepped up their efforts to court Black voters.
Trump’s campaign recently announced a new coalition, “Black Americans for Trump,” which boasts endorsements from elected officials, athletes, entertainers, community leaders and pastors from the Black community. The announcement on Saturday coincided with Trump’s visit to Detroit to attend a roundtable discussion at a Black church.
The Biden campaign launched a fresh push to win over Black voters with a rally in Philadelphia last month.
There, Biden thanked Black voters for propelling him to the White House in 2020 and ran through a list of his policy achievements that he said improved the lives of Black Americans.
He also told them that Trump was “pandering and peddling lies and stereotypes for your vote, so he can win for himself, not for you.”
Update 06/20/24, 6:40 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Thomas Gift.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.