Shifting voting blocks: How historically Democratic, Republican communities have shifted political identities

Politicians, specifically presidential candidates, have historically tried to win over specific communities and demographics, no matter the election year.

Over the years, however, the communities that Republicans and Democrats have targeted have changed with time. The messaging to specific groups and the attention they give to various communities have also changed and become more strategic, as identities one party counted on have shifted to the other side. The question now is, how can they win back those votes or replace them with other groups?

African American and Hispanic communities

Synonymous with the Democratic party has been the loyal base of African American and Hispanic voters. However, that has recently begun to change.

“African Americans and Hispanics have historically been reliable members of the Democratic Party coalition. … Polling suggests a marginally lower level of support in this year’s presidential election,” Bill Lyons, a professor of American politics and voting behavior, said.

In recent elections, Black Americans have continuously and overwhelmingly voted for the Democratic Party. John Kerry, the white Democratic nominee for president in 2004, carried 88% of the African American votes, and when Barack Obama ran for president in 2008 as the first Black American to win the nomination of one of the two major parties, he won 93% of the African American votes.

“However, more recently, since the 2012 presidential election, we have seen an uptick in African American men voting more Republican. African American men still remain largely Democratic Party supporters. … However, there is an increasing gender gap between Black men and Black women’s support of the Democratic Party,” Dr. Shayla Nunnally, head of Africana Studies and professor of African American Politics, said.

According to the Gallup Research group, Black Americans’ voter preference for the Democratic Party over the last three years has shrunk by 20 points. In the Black community, there’s even a disconnect between young and old voters. Black voters above 50 align with Republicans 7% of the time, while those under 50 align 17% of the time. The highest group of those who pledged support for former President Donald Trump comes from 18-29 years old.

Researchers have speculated why these shifts have occurred for Black Americans, and the reasons are “complex, including concerns about crime, immigration and spending on international conflicts,” Lyons said.

Some say the shift comes from not associating politics with the Civil Rights Movement as Black voters once did, while others say they haven’t seen the real change that they’ve been promised by candidates over the years.

With many promises specific to the Black community and never acted on, Black Americans have become anxious with the Democratic Party. For example, in 2020 President Joe Biden promised sweeping criminal justice reforms, referring to a justice system that had targeted Black Americans for years. Yet, since in office, Biden has been unable to push forward the reforms he had hoped, for various reasons such as gridlock in Congress or other policies he has prioritized over criminal justice reforms.

Trump passed the First Step Act in 2018 which addressed some concerns of criminal justice reforms, and released 26,000 incarcerated Americans. Some Black voters have felt their vote has been taken advantage of, and Trump’s action on this issue is more than they saw from the Democratic party.

This same issue of shifting voting blocks applies to the Hispanic community. In recent election data, Democrats now have a 12-point advantage, a historical low. Since 1976, however, a majority of Hispanic voters have voted for a Democratic candidate for president — but that may change with recent events and policy issues. Polling shows that Trump is garnering close to 45-47% of support from Hispanic voters, whereas in 2020 he only received 32% of the Hispanic vote.

“Another intersection to consider for Latinos is religiosity and Catholicism, which if abortion is a leading issue among Latinos, Trump’s emphasis on this issue may attract voters,” said Nunnally.

For many non-white groups, Trump’s populist and America-first rhetoric speaks to their issues. With many Americans focused on the state of the economy and the ability for economic mobility, some have attributed this to reasons why the shifting occurred in these groups.

Union members and blue-collar workers

The same economic rhetoric that has resonated with minority groups has also struck a chord among working Americans and union members. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters — a 1.3 million member union — did not endorse Vice President Harris this coming cycle. That’s the first time it hasn’t endorsed a Democratic candidate for president since President George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Blue-collar workers have been a steady voting group for Democratic candidates for years, with President Biden earning numerous union endorsements in 2020.

At the most recent Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Teamsters President Sean O’Brien took center stage, on which he highlighted the voices of union members. Though there was no endorsement for Trump, it still sent a message. Historically speaking, Republicans have looked down on organized labor — which is why it was unprecedented to highlight one of the largest unions on the Republican stage.

According to the internal polling of the Teamsters, members supported Biden over Trump by an 8-point margin, 44-36%. However, with new polling in a Trump versus Harris matchup, the results were 60% Trump and 34% Harris with a second poll showing 58% Trump and 31% Harris.

Recently, Republicans have helped bring in a larger vote count in non-college-educated voters than in recent history.

Moderate Republicans and college-educated voters

For Kamala Harris, her team has increased support from the vocal anti-Trump voters. Her team has amplified Republican voices including the likes of former Vice President Dick Cheney and former congresswoman Liz Cheney, as well as others such as former congressman Adam Kinzinger, who spoke at the Democratic National Convention.

Harris appeals to those who may have been a part of the Republican party in the past but dislike the personality and manner of Trump.

Democrats have also seen an increase in college-educated white Americans. The Republican party used to be that of the college-educated party, but it reached its peak in 2008, shifting to more blue-collar voters. In 2008, the Democratic Party garnered 31.5% of the educated voters but rose to 52% in 2020 in unprecedented numbers.

In heavy swing states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, college-educated white voters shifted away from Trump by double digits.

With shifting demographics and communities voting for differing groups that would have been unheard of 50 years ago, political parties and candidates have shifted their messaging and their campaigns to reach out to groups that were never seen in their “tent” of voters in the past.

However, it is still questionable whether either campaign will be able to count on their usual voter blocks yet also add communities that they haven’t seen before. The game is all addition. Each decision is about adding, not subtracting, and with polling showing very tight margins and some saying the election will come down to a few thousand votes, the question is, who can add more than the next?

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