For decades, despite the diverse politics of the Black community, addressing Black voters’ concerns with racial and economic domestic issues was enough to solidify the Black American vote behind the Democratic Party. But this is changing. President Joe Biden’s reluctance to call for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war—which has resulted in the deaths of more than 28,000 people in Gaza, over 150 strikes on U.S. troops in the Middle East, and in recent weeks the deaths of three Black service members in Jordan—is leading more and more Black voters to question their support for the president.

In the beginning of January, in an attempt to boost political morale among his most loyal constituency, Biden made an appearance at the Mother Emanuel AME church in Charleston, South Carolina—where nine Black Americans were gunned down by a white supremacist shooter in 2015. At this sacred site, it was fitting that Biden spoke about domestic issues such as racism and political violence. Unfortunately, Biden’s foreign-policy woes followed him to the pulpit, where he was interrupted by protesters demanding a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war.

Churches like Mother Emanuel AME play a key role in shaping the voting decisions of the larger Black community. More and more members of the clergy are speaking out from the pulpit against Biden’s support for Israel. A recent New York Times article revealed that over the past several months more than 1,000 Black pastors—ranging from conservative Southern Baptist churches to progressive nondenominational congregations in the Midwest and Northeast—have called for an end to Israel’s offensive operations in Gaza as well as the release of all hostages held by Hamas. As in other parts of the American public, much of the momentum behind Black faith leaders’ calls for a cease-fire is coming from younger congregants.

The growing discontentment with Biden’s handling of the conflict was in some ways foreseeable. A Carnegie Endowment for International Peace survey of Black American opinion on the conflict conducted in October 2023, long before the death toll in Gaza had mounted, already revealed that 95 percent of Black Americans rejected the idea of “unwavering support” for Israel. Furthermore, while most Black Americans (65 percent) did not feel any worse about Biden in this early period of the conflict, Blacks under the age of 30 were 33 percent more likely to report feeling worse about the president compared to the rest of respondents.

As one pastor in the swing state of Georgia stated, “It’s going to be very hard to persuade our people to go back to the polls and vote for Biden.” This comes on the heels of polling that reveals that Black voters’ approval rating for Biden in recent months is down nearly 20 percentage points. It is more and more difficult to view the mounting number of civilian deaths and worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza as being in line with the human rights commitments Biden ran on in 2020.

The dip in enthusiasm for Biden is in part related to a feeling of Black-Palestinian solidarity among some of these disaffected Black voters. For others, lackluster support for Biden could also be a function of a limited appetite for yet another U.S. entanglement in the Middle East. For instance, the same Carnegie survey revealed that a quarter (24 percent) of Black respondents felt that the United States should not be involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict and that only 33 percent would be willing to send troops to the region if Israel was attacked by a neighboring state.

It is fair to assume that the death of three Black service members in a drone attack near the Syria-Jordan border will conjure strong feelings about Biden’s Middle East posture and the perennial human and material costs placed upon the Black American community in wartime.

Black American news outlets such as the Amsterdam News, The Root, and Black Enterprise were quick to note that the three service members killed were Black. On social media outlets such as X, many Black Americans are now wondering what the strategic purpose was for those soldiers being stationed there in the first place, and if Biden will be able to prevent more deaths of U.S. troops in an area where the United States is not actively at war.

High rates of Black American military service, alongside the recent memory of the post-9/11 wars (which carried a price tag of $8 trillion), will weigh heavily on the minds of Black voters as they grapple with economic and racial issues domestically. If a community in which so many people have close relatives on active duty comes to believe that Biden’s Middle East policy has led to increased attacks on U.S. troops (a point numerous pundits have come to argue), it is likely that this will influence Black voters—many of whom have historically shown high levels of reticence toward the use of force abroad and see parallels to their own historic struggle for civil rights.

As election season approaches, the Biden administration’s well-timed appearances at fish fries, churches, historically Black colleges and universities, and Black sorority and fraternity events will not be enough to secure the Black vote—as it did in 2020. This is especially true if the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to deteriorate before November.

Recent statements by Black members of Biden’s cabinet, such as Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, speaking out against Israel’s handling of military operations in Gaza can be understood as an attempt to address those troubled by the worsening humanitarian situation in the region and to salvage Biden’s reputation as a champion of human rights, a key component of his platform in the 2020 election. However, such statements will be for naught if members of the Black community do not see a change in Middle East policy.

Since the turn of the century, Black American public opinion on U.S. military engagements has often foreshadowed broader public discontentment with poor foreign-policy decisions. For instance, Black Americans were among the earliest and most vocal groups raising concerns about the 2003 Iraq War—now widely viewed as ill-fated. Unfortunately, foreign-policy experts have sometimes been slow to listen to Black American opinion on Washington’s role in the world. If Biden is going to succeed in securing a second term, now is the time to do so.