COMPILED BY ANDREW CAIN
November 6, 2023
Gov. Glenn Youngkin greets attendees at a rally in Henrico County on Sunday, two days before elections in Virginia.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin rallied GOP supporters Sunday in battleground Henrico County, for Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, and House candidates Riley Shaia and David Owen, whose contests will be key to which party wins control of the legislative chambers.
During this year’s legislative session Democrats held a four-seat edge in the Senate and Republicans held a four-seat edge in the House. But redistricting altered the partisan lean of many districts.
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If past performance in the current configurations is a guide, Democrats appear to have the advantage in 18 of the 40 Senate districts and Republicans 16, with six seats competitive on Tuesday, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
That means that barring upsets elsewhere, Republicans would need to win four of the six swing seats in order to forge a 20-20 tie in the Senate, which would enable Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to break ties on most issues. Republicans would need to win five of the six to get an outright majority.
Winning five of the six swing seats could be a tough Roe to hoe in this political climate, but Virginia Republicans believe they have a chance to live out their chant: “hold the House and flip the Senate.”
Democrats think their pledge to protect abortion rights gives them the edge.
Another development added to the political uncertainty on Sunday, as The New York Times reported that President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in five of six crucial swing states.
By Tuesday night we’ll know whether a wave hit Virginia and, if so, from which direction.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Election Day: The polls open Tuesday at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.
Budget retreat: The Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee, which is about to get a significant makeover, holds its annual retreat Nov. 15-17 at the Hyatt Regency in Tysons Corner. The retreat is part of preparations for the next two year-budget. Gov. Glenn Youngkin presents his proposal to the joint money committees Dec. 20 in Richmond.
WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
All eyes on Virginia: Two years after Gov. Glenn Youngkin drew national notice for winning Virginia’s governorship in a blue-trending state, the political world will cast its eyes on Virginia again Tuesday as he seeks total control of the state legislature. READ MORE
Rabbi Yossel Kranz, director of Chabad of Virginia, said there’s a strong “anti-Israel bias” at VCU, which has roughly 1,500 Jewish students, he estimated.
Gaza: Eric Kolenich reports that about a month after the Hamas attacks on Israel, Jewish and Palestinian students at Virginia Commonwealth University feel unsafe and unheard. READ MORE
Sereen Haddad, a VCU student, criticized university president Michael Rao’s first statement following Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7. That letter called the attack “savage” and “barbaric.” Haddad has family in Palestine.
Budget: Michael Martz and Dave Ress report that Gov. Glenn Youngkin is looking at potential spending cuts to save money for the state’s next two-year budget. READ MORE
Casino: Em Holter reports that a developer of the proposed $562 million casino and gaming complex in South Richmond apologized Friday to Paul Goldman, a critic of the project, after antisemitic remarks were made about him on a radio station the company owns. READ MORE
Debate?: Holter reports that on Sunday Goldman challenged casino developers to debate before Tuesday’s election. READ MORE
Schapiro: Politics columnist Jeff Schapiro writes that Tuesday’s election is a referendum on the governor. READ MORE
Redistricting revisited
It’s been two years since Virginia’s redistricting commission collapsed, leaving the task of redrawing new legislative and congressional boundaries to the state Supreme Court.
Some Democrats had opposed the redistricting referendum, arguing that a partisan breakdown in the evenly divided commission would leave decisions to a GOP-leaning state Supreme Court. That did come to pass, but this much is true: Under the court’s maps the legislature is more competitive and it’s becoming more diverse.
* We head into Tuesday with robust competition for control of the House of Delegates and the state Senate. Both parties appear to have a shot to control both houses.
* Whichever party wins control, or if we continue to have divided government, the legislature will become more diverse.
For example, there are 18 Black candidates running for the 40 Senate seats. Seven appear favored to win. One more, Del. Clint Jenkins, D-Suffolk, is in a competitive contest with Del. Emily Brewer, R-Suffolk. The Senate appears likely to have its largest African American membership since Reconstruction.
* Eleven of the African American Senate candidates are women. They are among 30 women running for the 40 Senate seats.
* The Senate also could have two Indian American members and a senator born in Bangladesh.
The 1st Congressional District, represented by Republican Rob Wittman, includes western Henrico and western Chesterfield counties as well as part of Hanover County. Those three counties form the new district’s largest voter blocs.
There are still gripes about the new maps. The sprawling 1st Congressional District, represented by Rep. Rob Wittman, R-1st, hardly reflects communities of common interest. It extends from western Chesterfield, western Henrico and eastern Hanover County northeast to Westmoreland County on the Northern Neck and south to York County and Poquoson.
And in redrawing the legislative boundaries without regard to incumbency – pairing dozens of lawmakers in new districts with other incumbents – the court’s experts set off a massive brain drain. Ten of the 40 senators retired and five more lost their seats in primaries. The Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee will take up the governor’s two-year budget proposal in January having lost nine of its 15 members to retirement or defeat.
That said, while the sausage making wasn’t pretty, the oldest continuing lawmaking body in the New World is becoming more reflective of the people it represents.
Zach Smith, 18, plays an electronic skill game at a 7-Eleven in Henrico County. The state Supreme Court in October reinstated a ban on thousands of the betting machines in gas stations, bars and convenience stores.
IN OTHER NEWS
• Luca Powell reports on how Virginia police and prosecutors are enforcing the ban on electronic skill games. READ MORE
• Charlotte Rene Woods reports that Democrats are renewing their calls for more gun safety laws after the mass shooting in Maine. READ MORE
• Woods reports that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed about two dozen Democrats who are running for the General Assembly. READ MORE
PHOTO OF THE WEEK
Robius Elementary School teachers, Rachel Christiansen, front, Sean McDonald and Andrew Woodward, work to hang a mural in the cafeteria for the school’s upcoming Veteran’s Day pageant in Midlothian, Va. Nov. 2. “Every fourth and fifth grade student worked to paint the mural,” Woodward said.
MONDAY TRIVIA
Which was the first country to give women the right to vote?
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“The tragedies committed by Hamas have nothing to do with the Palestinian people. They’re the worst thing to happen to the Palestinian people in 20 years.”
– Rabbi Yossel Kranz, director of Chabad of Virginia
TRIVIA ANSWER
New Zealand gave women the right to vote in 1893.