5 things we learned on Election Day in Virginia

Gov. Glenn Youngkin vigorously campaigned at GOP rallies, leading chants of “Hold the House, flip the Senate.” When the smoke cleared Tuesday night, Republicans did not do either.

Here are five things we learned on Election Day in Virginia:

Abortion rights rule

Youngkin said he was trying to build a “reasonable” consensus on abortion, proposing to bar most of the procedures after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. 

The proposal did not sell in the suburbs, as Republican hopefuls lost a handful of critically important swing seats, from crucial Senate races in Henrico and Loudoun to key House races in Stafford and Virginia Beach.

The votes Tuesday in Virginia and in Ohio – where residents chose to protect abortion rights in the state constitution – are the latest indication that abortion rights will be a major national issue in 2024.

End of the presidential boomlet?

Youngkin has said for months that he was “laser-focused” on the General Assembly elections, but he hasn’t discouraged speculation about a potential presidential bid. Youngkin has said his election sparked a “movement” and he has held up his governance as a national model. Voters’ rejection of his proposals at home does not help his case on the national stage.

The governor’s not-so-super Tuesday means we’re a lot less likely to see him competing March 5 on Super Tuesday.

Altered agenda

Youngkin had urged voters to elect a House and Senate that would “work with me, not against me.” Instead, Democrats now will control both chambers. This means Youngkin could face defeat on hot-button issues, from abortion restrictions, to permanent tax cuts, to school choice. It also means he is likely to veto many more measures that clear a legislature led by Democrats.

Stoney and Spanberger

Once again, Richmond voters put the No in casino. That’s bad news for Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, who is widely expected to announce a run for the 2025 Democratic nomination for governor. Stoney has now twice backed casino referendums that the city’s voters rejected. 

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-7th, was not on the ballot Tuesday, but she had a good night. Spanberger also is expected to soon announce a 2025 run for Democrats’ gubernatorial nomination. Not only did the casino result hurt her rival, Stoney.  The legislative elections mean that the next governor takes office in January 2026 with a Democratic majority in the state Senate.

Another first

By flipping control of the House of Delegates, Democrats assured that they will pick the next speaker of the House to succeed House Speaker Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah. Democrats are likely to pick the current House minority leader, Del. Don Scott Jr., D-Portsmouth.

Scott would be Virginia’s first African American speaker of the House. That would mean that Black officials lead both the House and the Senate, where Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears presides.

In a volatile era for the House of Delegates, Gilbert will be the third straight House speaker to spend just two years in the post, following Del. Eileen Filler-Corn, D-Fairfax and Del. Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights.